How Great Leaders Decide Under Pressure

The flickering light from Sean’s laptop screen was the only illumination in the otherwise dark office of his agri-machinery parts supplier. It was past midnight.

• Spreadsheets detailing cash flow projections
• Emails from anxious suppliers demanding payment
• His operations manager pushing to hire two new technicians
• A blunt email from his accountant: “Overheads up 30%, sales flat”.
• Geopolitical instability disrupting logistics
• Energy prices at their highest
• And whispers of recession that refused to quieten

Sean felt paralysed. Every choice felt monumental, loaded with unseen risk. "If I get this wrong..." he thought, the weight of 15 employees and three generations of family legacy pressing down.

He poured a stiff whiskey, not for celebration, but for courage.

For countless Irish SME owners in manufacturing, retail, construction, food production and other traditional sectors, this late-night wrestling match with uncertainty isn’t drama. It’s just another day at the office.

The sheer volume and complexity of decisions can freeze progress. But what if your next big decision felt less like a gamble and more like a deliberate, confident step forward?

Why Sharpening Your Decision Axe Matters More Than Ever

Irish SMEs are the backbone of our economy, employing over 1 million people, this means SMEs account for about 68% of total employment in the country. Yet, traditional industries face unique challenges:

1. Economic Pressures: While Ireland’s economy remains relatively resilient, small businesses continue to face rising operating costs and tight margins. Inflation eased through mid‑2025 but picked up again, reaching around 2.8% by December 2025, compared with about 1% a year earlier. The European Central Bank has reduced its key interest rates to just above 2%, down from around 4.5% in mid‑2023, and kept them on hold at its February 2026 meeting. Despite this, borrowing for Irish SMEs remains relatively expensive, with many firms reporting higher material and wage costs, fragile supply chains and difficult access to medium‑ and long‑term finance, according to Central Bank and SME finance data.
2. Digital, AI & Green Transitions: Keeping pace with digitalisation, adopting practical AI tools and meeting tougher environmental rules now requires significant decisions and investment, often in areas outside a business owner’s usual expertise. Falling behind can quickly weaken competitiveness and make it harder to win larger contracts or access finance
3. Talent Squeeze: Finding and retaining skilled staff, particularly in specialised trades crucial to traditional sectors, remains a top challenge cited by IBEC and ISME surveys. Every hire (or failure to hire) is a critical decision impacting capacity and quality.
4. Decision Fatigue: Owners and managers in SMEs still wear many hats, and the constant stream of operational, financial and people decisions creates sustained cognitive overload. International research shows that emotional exhaustion and burnout among SME leaders are strongly associated with weaker business performance and highlight that overloaded leadership teams are less innovative and slower to respond to change.

The cost of poor decisions here isn't just a missed opportunity; it can mean reduced margins, lost customers, demoralised staff or even business failure. On the flip side, effective decision-making is the engine of resilience, innovation and sustainable growth.

Practical Steps to Better Decisions

It’s not about being right every time but about consistently making the best possible choice with the information and resources available and learning quickly when things don’t go as planned.

Becoming a more effective decision-maker is about adopting better processes and mindsets. Think of it as sharpening your most important tool: your judgment.

Step 1: Define the Real Problem (Not Just the Symptom)

Too often, we jump to solutions before fully understanding the problem. Sean might think, "I need cheaper parts suppliers!" when the real issue is inefficient inventory management leading to panic buying. Ask:

• What is the core issue we are trying to solve or opportunity we are trying to seize?
• What are the measurable symptoms?
• What happens if we do nothing? (The "do nothing" scenario is a valid baseline and a decision nevertheless).
• Frame the decision clearly: "We need to decide [specific choice] to achieve [specific outcome] by [timeframe]."

Step 2: Gather Intelligence Wisely (Diversify Your Inputs)

Avoid the echo chamber. Seek diverse perspectives and relevant data:

• Internal: Consult frontline staff, they often see operational realities missed from the top. Involve your finance team early for cost implications.
• External: Tap into industry bodies (like Chambers Ireland, IFA, IBEC sector groups), relevant government supports (Enterprise Ireland, Local Enterprise Offices), trusted advisors and customers. What are competitors doing?
• Data: Use your own sales figures, cost reports and customer feedback. Supplement with relevant market research (even free summaries from reputable firms like CSO sectoral data) or industry white papers. Beware of information overload; seek relevant data, not all data.
• Challenge Assumptions: Explicitly state the assumptions underpinning each potential option. Are they valid? How could they be wrong?

Step 3: Generate & Evaluate Options (Structure Beats Gut Feel)

Don't settle for the first "good enough" idea or a simple binary choice (e.g., hire/don't hire). Brainstorm multiple paths forward. Then, evaluate systematically:

• Criteria: Define 3-5 key criteria before evaluating options. These should align with your core objectives (e.g., cost, speed to implement, impact on quality, employee morale, strategic fit, risk level). Weight them if some are significantly more important.
• Pros & Cons (Enhanced): Go beyond simple lists. For each pro/con, consider:
• Simple Scoring: Rate each option (e.g., 1-5) against your weighted criteria. The numbers often reveal insights gut feel misses.
• Consider the "Second-Order Effects": What are the potential long-term or unintended consequences of each option? (e.g., Choosing the cheapest supplier might save money now but damage quality and reputation later).

Step 4: Decide & Commit (But Stay Agile)

Once evaluation is done, make the call. Avoid "analysis paralysis." Remember:

• The 70% Rule*: Rarely will you have 100% certainty. If you have 70% of the information you feel you need and the decision is timely, act. Waiting for perfect information usually means missing the opportunity.
• Communicate Clearly: Explain the decision, the rationale (briefly) and expectations to those affected. Uncertainty breeds anxiety; clarity builds trust and alignment.
• Own It: As leader, you own the outcome, good or bad. Don't hedge or blame if things go south.

*Jeff Bezos (70% Rule): Bezos advocates making decisions with roughly 70% of the information available, arguing that waiting for 90% or more is too slow and costly. Colin Powell (40-70 Rule): Powell’s rule states that a leader should have no less than 40% and no more than 70% of the necessary information to make a decision, using intuition to fill the gap. 

Step 5: Review & Learn (The Feedback Loop)

Build in review points before implementing:

• Set Checkpoints: When will you review progress? What metrics will indicate success or trouble?
• Conduct Post-Mortems (or "Post-Project Reviews"): For significant decisions, after implementation, gather the team and ask:
• Normalise "Good" Failures: If a well-reasoned decision based on good information doesn't pan out, treat it as a valuable learning experience, not a catastrophe. Punishing reasonable failure stifles future initiative.

3 Things You Can Do This Week

Choose one pressing decision you keep postponing.

• Acknowledge the Weight. Write down the core fear holding you back (e.g., "Fear of cash flow shortfall," "Fear of choosing the wrong tech partner"). Naming it is the first step to managing it.
• Implement the "Pre-Mortem". Gather your core team and ask: "Imagine it's one year from now and this decision has failed spectacularly. What are the top 3 reasons why?" This proactive risk identification is incredibly powerful.
• Apply the "Cost of Delay". Write down your best estimate of the tangible cost (lost revenue, extra expenses) or intangible cost (missed opportunity, declining morale, competitive disadvantage) of delaying it by another 4 weeks. Use this to prioritise.

From Whiskey to Clarity

That late-night whiskey moment for Sean isn't about weakness; it's a symptom of the immense responsibility shouldered by Ireland's SME owners. But reliance on liquid courage (or caffeine or sheer stubbornness) is a fragile strategy.

Building a robust decision-making process, by incorporating clear definition, diverse inputs, structured evaluation, decisive action and disciplined learning would transform pressure into progress. 

So, the next time you find yourself staring at a screen late at night, facing down a tough call, pause. Put the whiskey aside (save it for celebrating the wins). Reach instead for a pen and paper. Define the real problem. Gather your team's wisdom tomorrow. Structure your options. Make the call. Learn from the result.

That’s how legacies are built and sustained, one deliberate decision at a time. What’s the first decision you’ll tackle differently?